Prediction in ungauged estuaries: An integrated theory

Many estuaries in the world are ungauged. The International Association of Hydrological Sciences completed its science decade on Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) in 2012 (Hrachowitz et al., 2013). Prediction on the basis of limited data is a challenge in hydrology, but not less so in estuaries, where data on fundamental processes are often lacking. In this paper, relatively simple, but science-based, methods are presented that allow researchers, engineers, and water managers to obtain first-order estimates of essential process parameters in estuaries, such as the estuary depth, the tidal amplitude, the tidal excursion, the phase lag, and the salt water intrusion, on the basis of readily obtainable information, such as topographical maps and tidal tables. These apparently simple relationships are assumed to result from the capacity of freely erodible water bodies to adjust themselves to external drivers and to dissipate the free energy from these drivers as efficiently as possible. Thus, it is assumed that these systems operate close to their thermodynamic limit, resulting in predictable patterns that can be described by relatively simple equations. Although still much has to be done to develop an overall physics-based theory, this does not prevent us from making use of the empirical ‘‘laws’’ that we observe in alluvial estuaries.